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Continued ...

Verizon is Qualcomm's most important friend in the operator community and once the strongest backer of CDMA. By taking an increasingly hard line on CDMA, Verizon opens up a new can of worms for Qualcomm, the possible accelerated demise of the CDMA platform after the Rev A/B generation - and with operators in some non-3G economies likely to skip that generation too and move more quickly to an IP platform. The threat of the loss of CDMA will not be unexpected to Qualcomm, and its growing strengths in HSPA, multimode chipsets, multimedia and platform-neutral technologies like Brew show it has a powerful contingency plan for replacing the eventual loss of CDMA revenues. If this were a simple matter of revenues, there would be every faith that, like other engineering powerhouses before it, Qualcomm would weather the transition with a sharp refocusing of its product line. But of course, CDMA is far more than that and its loss is more easily equated with the challenges Intel faces should the Wintel PC start to lose its role as the technology client of choice. Both vendors can shift engineering and marketing for new, growth markets and leverage their existing customer bases and influence to ensure they accelerate their entry into new territories. But both will be losing a technology base over which they had complete control, and massive market share, both of which generated advantages in terms of margin, revenue and security that they will never have again.

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