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Chinese could be most likely bidders for Motorola units
Published: 5 February, 2008
Tags >> Motorola
With such doubts flying, however, Brown will have a tough job attracting high value for a separated handset company. He seems prepared to try though. Motorola said last week that it was exploring "the structural and strategic realignment of its businesses to better equip its Mobile Devices business to recapture global market leadership and to enhance shareholder value." In a statement, Brown added: "We are exploring ways in which our Mobile Devices business can accelerate its recovery and retain and attract talent while enabling our shareholders to realize the value of this great franchise." Although the board said it would not discuss the issue publicly again until a decision was made, there is now pressure to make that decision quickly, since rivals will use the uncertainty to exploit Motorola's weakness still further - already, Nokia has gained its long targeted 40% market share, while its US rival has dropped to 21% and third place in the sector after Samsung.
Analysts and shareholders were broadly positive about Brown's decision (shares rose 10% to $12.69 on the statement), though everyone wants swift resolution before there is too much damage from customer uncertainty, brand damage and defection of key staff or suppliers. Analyst Mark McKechnie at American Technology Research, said in one of the most insightful of the many research notes issued on this topic that Motorola's "handset hole" would likely persist into 2009 and that turnaround would require investment on the scale of $500m to $2bn - therefore it was high time to review the options for the unit. With Nokia controlling 40% of the market, and about 75% of its profits, and having double the margins of any major competitor, McKechnie feels $8bn would a generous price for Motorola's handset business.
With the handset unit valued by UBS at between $7.5bn and $11.5bn, there are only a few companies that would be able and willing to bid outright. Nokia does need to increase US share, but with US leader Motorola weakened anyway, it will have cheaper and easier ways to do that, plus it would face antitrust issues and steers clear of large acquisitions. LG and Samsung would be more likely bidders, since both need to bulk up their market share, and there is synergy in the CDMA sector, while Motorola's aggressive development of ultra-low cost handsets, though disastrous to its margins, might appeal to a vendor focused on emerging markets, such as a Chinese ODM.
More likely than a full sale may be a joint venture, in which case there would be the chance for a tie-up with a consumer electronics manufacturer looking to expand in mobility. Echoing the Sony Ericsson alliance, there would be potential for Motorola to lend its mobile expertise to a strong consumer brand such as Dell (which numbers Motorola's former handset chief, Ron Garriques, among its senior executives), but such a company would have to be prepared to cope with the different margins, structures and pressures of the handset business.
