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It is hard to think of another technology which has been teetering on the brink of commercialisation for so long. To be sure, UWB has been stuck in a perpetual state of suspended 'immination' since late 2003 when ARCchart first started to cover the emerging wireless standard (see "When will we see UWB?"). Back then, ABI was predicting that UWB electronics and chips would reach 45.1 million units by 2007, with industry revenue of $1.39 billion. Parks Associates reckoned that UWB systems would exceed 150 million devices by the end of 2008. With the benefit of hindsight, these estimates now look somewhat comical.

The reason for UWB's delay is certainly not indifference towards the technology. Far from being ignored, readers will recall the two camps which formed in 2003 when a UWB standard was being finalised, each camp pushing substantially different implementations of the technology. One camp was led by Intel and the other by Motorola and the standards battle which ensued was so fierce that, at one point, the UN considered sending in peacekeepers. The Intel camp won in the end and went on to become the WiMedia Alliance.

Last week's Faultline newsletter from Rethink Research published comments from Yoram Solomon, Senior Director, Technology Strategy & Industry Relations at Texas Instruments that attributes UWB's delay to more technical reasons. Solomon confessed to the downgrading of the technology within TI, and painted a grim picture for the UWB industry for the next three years. "I've seen all the demonstrations and lab results that show that UWB can deliver upwards of 480 Mbps, but that's not in a commercial product, and it is especially not possible when its on the same 5mm x 5mm piece of silicon as two other radios, and for a phone that's where it's got to work."

Solomon's comments were primarily in reference to integration of UWB within the handset, but his outlook for home networking and cable replacement were equally negative for UWB. DLNA on IP over UWB, Wi-Fi and/or Bluetooth and even high-speed line-of-sight technologies were all identified as possibilities that would compete with wireless USB, which leverages the WiMedia flavour of UWB.

According to IMS Research's Fiona Thomson in a new report, 2008 is a make-or-break year for UWB. "Wireless USB really has to succeed this year. The industry has been building the hype, they've been saying since 2006, 'It's here, it's here, it's here.'" Thomson said. Despite laptop UWB support from Dell, Lenovo and Toshiba, chips are still above $10, according to Thomson. The big question is whether chip prices will dip low enough for handsets and accessories to be viable before the technology's window closes.

TI's Solomon makes no bones about what technology will provide a stopgap solution until UWB gets its act together. "For now we think that 802.11n Wi-Fi gives us the right technology to use until UWB becomes mature enough to put in a handset, and we are working with the Bluetooth SIG to use Wi-Fi as a basis for the next Bluetooth."

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