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Operators and vendors may see the dawn of Indian 3G as one of the few bright spots on the 2009 wireless horizon, but there may not be much profit in the market. Manoj Kohli, CEO of Indian carrier Bharti Airtel, said in a keynote address at last week's GSMA Asia conference that 3G handset prices must fall below $100 by the end of next year for the new services to take off in India, once spectrum is awarded next year.

Bharti expects to receive its license in January 2009 and turn on its first networks towards the end of the year. He also predicts that there will be mass consolidation in the country's rapidly growing mobile market over the next three years, resulting in just five or six large players being left. As well as incumbents like Bharti, Vodafone Essar, Reliance, Tata and BSNL, international operators are entering the country - including Etisalat, Telenor and DoCoMo - and further operators may bid for 3G licenses next year. The foreign players are generally partnering with the new operators who gained 2G regional licenses earlier this year. This will put pressure on the native Indian carriers to look for foreign expansion themselves, and Bharti plans to look for such opportunities from next year, concentrating on neighboring countries. Early in 2009, it plans to launch in nearby Sri Lanka.

Kohli said he was confident that the Indian economy in general, and the mobile sector in particular, will prove strong enough to ride out the recession storm.

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