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Potential of embedded 3G is exaggerated, says research
Published: 10 December, 2008
With the rapid growth in uptake of laptop-based 3G services, mainly based on dongles, there have been high hopes for embedded 3G and WiMAX options, with companies like Qualcomm racing to deliver chips to PC makers. But in the next three years at least, the importance of embedded mobile broadband will be far less than has been forecast, according to a new report from Disruptive Analysis.
The researchers say that, even by 2012, only 30% of active mobile broadband users will be relying on laptops with built-in 3G, WiMAX or LTE. The rest will still be using external modems - good news for companies like Huawei that have thrived in the dongle market. Of course, the report does not take into account the likely upsurge in other mobile internet device formats, which will be designed with embedded wireless, and will start to take over the notebook's role in some user segments.
However, by 2014, embedded mobile broadband will overtake dongles, in terms of both shipments and the active user base, says the report, which predicts there will be 150m users of notebooks and netbooks with embedded 3G or 4G by that date. By then, 100m wireless laptops will be sold each year, though not all will be activated.
The main reasons identified for relatively slow growth in embedded wireless are, according to report author Dean Bubley, the recession's impact on notebook upgrades; limitations of the sales and support channels for mobile notebooks; and the typical two-year monthly contract that goes with a netbook, which does not fit with much of the target market for these devices.
Bubley also believes the new category of MIDs will grow only slowly, with 3m sold in 2009, rising to 30m by 2014. By 2012, there will be 45m users of WiMAX mobile broadband devices, about 25% of these multimode, with 3G or LTE.
