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In the continuing absence of firm information from Palm on Pre pricing or launch dates, the analyst community is stepping up its efforts to fill the information gap. The latest debates - whether alleged shortages are deliberate or enforced by supply chain problems; and what the likely pricing will be.

According to a survey by Bloomberg, Palm may limit its stockpile of Pre handsets at launch to fewer than 400,000 units, in order to make it more desirable because of rapid sell-outs. The straw poll of analysts came up with a prediction that Palm would have about 375,000 units ready to ship at launch, in an effort to emulate the queues that built up when iPhone 3G devices sold out in their first three days on the market.

However, a short supply of Pres could also relate to reports by OTR Research earlier this month that there Palm was struggling with shortage of display and other components and would not be able to hit the production targets it had set for Sprint, let alone extending the Pre launch into Europe and other territories in the first phase. Some observers are saying Palm has had to cut back shipment targets for May by about 65% because of manufacturing partner Foxconn's inability to deliver in volume.

On pricing, research firm and teardown specialist iSuppli conducted a 'virtual teardown' on the Pre, quoted in BusinessWeek. bBased on the firm's Mobile Handset Cost Model (specific Pre components and pricing remain closely guarded), iSuppli estimates that the Pre carries a combined total bill of materials (BOM) of $170.02, including hardware, manufacturing and software and IP licensing costs. The most expensive elements, predictably, should also be the differentiators - the display and touchscreen module, which iSuppli says will cost $39.51 or 23.2% of BOM, followed by the 8Gb NAND Flash memory, and the dual-band EV-DO air interface. iSuppli is projecting that Palm will try to sell the Pre to Sprint at a price of about $300, and then the operator will sell it to consumers for about $200 depending on data plan.

However, investment analysts at JRPG are skeptical. Their own estimates of Pre costs are higher than those published in BusinessWeek, as are the prices they expect Palm to charge. The iSuppli estimates are "20% less than our second quarter price estimate of $350 and exactly in line with our steady state pricing estimate," said JRPG. "Similarly the BusinessWeek article presented iSuppli's cost estimate of $138. Well below our steady state estimate of $200. However, BusinessWeek does not present the whole story. iSuppli's actual cost estimate is $170 not the $138 implied in the article."

Also, JRPG argues that the article has ignored the 'new product' factor. "Another difference between our estimates and BusinessWeek's analysis is that Palm achieves these costs and prices with the first unit shipped. Because the Pre is a new hardware platform with a new operating system, we anticipate higher costs (and prices) during the first six months. Hence our analysis implies higher costs and reduced contribution early in the manufacturing process."

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