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India and US will decide how WiMAX is perceived worldwide
Published: 3 August, 2009
Tags >> India | WiMAX
Infonetics is the latest analyst firm to identify India as the biggest potential market for WiMAX, and it also picks out Russia as a "perfect storm" for the technology because of its "challenging geography, dispersed population, pent-up demand for broadband and voice services, and a population able to pay for services". There are already 10 commercial networks in the country.
As for India, progress remains delayed by the postponement of 2.5GHz spectrum auctions, with this band expected to be used mainly for WiMAX. However, there are build-outs in 3.5GHz, mainly for fixed services, and state-owned telcos BSNL and MTNL also have early access to the new frequencies and have started their deployments, while looking for franchise partners.
Most of the major operators, including Tata and Bharti Airtel, are pursuing WiMAX, even while they are constrained to 3.5GHz, says Infonetics, which says "deployments are well underway with acceleration in adoption experienced in many telecoms circles". Harris Stratex' Telsima unit has been the lead vendor so far thanks to its close alliance with BSNL, followed by Alcatel-Lucent and Aperto. "India, because of its scale, and the US because of Clearwire's profile, are the two most prominent markets for WiMAX, and both are absolutely critical to its fortunes," said directing analyst Richard Webb. "Adoption levels and network performance in India and the US will dictate how WiMAX is perceived in a global context and how prominent a position 802.16e takes in the overall wireless landscape in the next decade."
He also pinpoints Brazil as one of WiMAX' best opportunities, given its highly mobile-oriented population and need for more broadband services. WiMAX has the chance to become the primary broadband network in the vast country, where the number of WiMAX subscribers is forecast to leap from 184,000 in 2008 to almost 8m in 2013.
In addition, there are over 80 networks now active in over 35 countries in Africa, while the Middle East also has strong potential. And Webb says that a failure of TD-SCDMA to fulfil the Chinese government's objectives could lead to a "softening of the regulatory attitude to WiMAX, leading to far more extensive WiMAX market growth".
