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While Symbian still rules in Europe and Japan, the US smartphone market is increasingly crazy for Linux, and this is likely to prompt Nokia - hopeful of ending its woeful run of poor performance in north America in 2010 - to give its Linux-based Maemo platform a bigger role in its strategy from next year. However, persistent speculation that Nokia is making an either/or decision and will actually back away from Symbian remains several leaps too far, and the firm came out with an official denial that it had any plans to demote Symbian from its position as lead smartphone OS.

That is not to say that Maemo will not gain an increased role, though the speed of moving the Linux platform to center stage will depend on the success of its early devices, notably the new N900. Although Maemo has a different function to Symbian, and is far more geared to open internet devices (like Google's Chrome OS), it does also need to attract conventional operator interest in the early stages to gain traction - and this will be especially important in the US, where Nokia is starting almost with a clean slate, and where Maemo could tap into the growing enthusiasm for mobile Linux, cloud models and open access.

So, it is increasingly clear that Nokia sees Maemo as its premier software platform for emerging device categories like MIDs or smartbooks (including its own N900), and for north America, though blog reports this week that it aimed to end support for Symbian are almost certainly wildly exaggerated, given the huge installed base of the OS and the moves towards open source. But like Google's Android and Chrome OS, the two platforms have different models, with Maemo and Chrome geared to open web devices, open access and a world where most activity is done in the browser and the cloud. Symbian and Android remain conventional smartphone OSs, whose strengths lie in optimization for each handset and network, and in supporting a high degree of operator or OEM customization.

In other words, Symbian is geared to the traditional cellco world, which will survive for many many years - but in the newer device categories and mobile models, the open browser systems will have their first impact. This has two impacts for Nokia - Symbian, over a long period of time, is likely to get pushed down the value chain as open internet devices take over the high end; and in a market where Nokia's traditional products and channels hold little sway, it is more likely to differentiate itself by playing to emerging new trends where it has a headstart. This is certainly true of north America, hence the stepped-up investment in the open Maemo platform and the new friendship with US mobile superpower Qualcomm, as well as a host of carrier co-developments.

However, the balance of effort between Maemo and Symbian in the US market from 2010 will depend on how the carriers leap, especially with the unsubsidized open market still in its infancy. If, as Nokia hopes, AT&T adopts Symbian for its own-brand, midrange phones and web services, this would ensure the OS mindshare among developers and consumers and could take the spotlight off Maemo - which, of course, has yet to win any carrier support in the US, an essential prerequisite for further promotion of this platform in the Nokia league table of technologies. The N900 has gone on sale for $649 but with no operator deal as yet.

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