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Femtocells have gone through a well worn - if truncated - cycle of inflated expectations followed by skepticism followed by a more realistic view of the market. The miniature base stations, at least in their residential format, look set for significant adoption in 2010 and a true mass market in 2011-2012 (enterprise and outdoor carrier variants may take longer). These timescales have disappointed some future gazers - ABI Research downgraded its forecasts last week, but the Femto Forum insists the sector is following the timelines most of its members had anticipated.

These are actually lightning fast compared to most new technologies, and realistically, it was unlikely that femtos would become mass market items until key operator requirements were met - standards to support interoperability and consumer device economics; and reassurances on complex network issues such as interference between cells and with the macro system. Now that most of these have been addressed to the satisfaction of several big name carriers, and a standards-based ecosystem is beginning to mature, the stage is set for the femto market to get real.

In terms of operator support, while the major upsurge is expected to start in 2010, there are already eight carriers with commercial deployments, according to a new market update from the Forum. This highlights the importance of the US, as cellcos battle to deliver good services despite the uneven coverage and poor indoor penetration of their networks in many areas - and look to offload traffic from their creaking 3G systems. Sprint Nextel and Verizon Wireless both offer 2G CDMA femtos, mainly for indoor coverage, while AT&T has launched its 3G HSPA Microcell in some territories. Elsewhere, Vodafone is live in the UK, while the other hub of activity is in east Asia, with China Mobile, DoCoMo and Softbank in Japan, and StarHub in Singapore all live.

The Forum says that such deployments mean the market is on track to meet its internal predictions for volume shipments in 2010. Volume will be driven, in particular, by standards and lower cost devices. The 3GPP has completed its femtocell standard and this will find its way into products next year, with the first major interoperability tests and plugfest to take place from March 2010. The CDMA standards body, 3GPP2, and the WiMAX Forum, are both expected to complete their own specifications by mid-2010.

As in most new technologies, vendors - having initially clung to their proprietary differentiation points - are now trying to highlight their standards credentials even aheade of formal testing, to attract operators. This week, a demonstration of multivendor applications was shownby three suppliers, Airvana, ip.access and Ubiquisys, running a femtocell aware mobile app from Intrinsyc Software. The demo took place at the

Femtocells Americas conference in San Diego, and saw Intrinsyc's UX-Zone application running consistently across all three mini base stations. This app incorporates femtocell presence triggers, to change the user interface on a smartphone automatically as soon as it enters a femto's zone. The firms worked together to implement the presence triggers in a standardized way, based on a draft framework created by the Femto Forum's Services Special Interest Group.

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