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Continued ...

This is a small but significant shift of focus, but many expect a more dramatic change of direction in the US soon, if Apple ends its exclusive with AT&T, one of the only one remaining in the world. But one analyst thinks Verizon may have to wait at least another year for an Apple phone. Jonathan Chaplin of Credit Suisse said in a client note that there was "a 75% probability that AT&T keeps exclusivity in 2010". This conflicted with a prediction by Piper Jaffray's Chris Larsen that there was a 70% chance of the iPhone coming to Verizon's CDMA network this year. Chaplin writes that he "couldn't find compelling evidence" that AT&T's contract with Apple ends this year, though he says the probability of this is 50% - but then adds another 25% likelihood that, even if it does expire, the cellco could negotiate with Apple to extend its deal for at least another year.

However, the returns for AT&T are diminishing. Apple accounts for two-thirds of its smartphone base and so the room for growth is shrinking, as is margin on the already heavily subsidized device. If the exclusive lasts until 2011, the analyst thinks Apple's north American smartphone share will fall from 26% to 23% or 13.3m units, and also impact its global share, which is about 17%.

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