LTE could take seven years in Taiwan, says regulator
WiMAX will have a clear run until 700MHz spectrum is cleared
Published: 15 April, 2010
READ MORE: Spectrum | Taiwan | LTE | WiMAX
Taiwan is a major WiMAX hotbed, because its manufacturing community has taken the lead in making the technology affordable, and it aims to have a similar role in LTE. However, despite two LTE trials in the island state, by FarEasTone and Chunghwa Telecom, the regulator believes LTE will not be commercially widespread until 2017.
Dr Chin-nan Hsien, a commissioner at the regulator, NCC, told the WiMAX Forum Congress Asia in Taipei that it will take three years before the 700MHz spectrum - seen as the main vehicle for LTE in Taiwan - is reclaimed from the current military and police users. After that, it will take another two years to conclude the LTE licensing process, and another two years for commercial services to be built out, he estimates.
Hsien may have been talking to an anti-LTE audience, but his cautionary words are an important antidote to some inflated expectations around the world about 4G timescales. As seen in 3G and WiMAX itself, there is usually a multiyear gap between trials and limited urban deployments, and widespread availability of a new technology.
"WiMAX will be the only choice in the market for seven years," Hsien told the conference, echoing his government's strong support for 802.16, which Taiwan believes will be a boost to its ODM ecosystem, and a technology it can dominate. Hsien expects consolidation of the country's six regional WiMAX operators, once they are legally allowed to merge (after commercial launch). Indeed, Global Mobile is said to be in talks to buy Fitel's WiMAX activities. Another carrier, FarEasTone, said the main weak spots in WiMAX, in its experience so far, were indoor penetration and limited choice of multimode devices. FarEasTone has also set up a joint testbed for TD-LTE with China Mobile.
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