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According to research published by analyst firm ABI, Linux-enabled smartphones, led by the success of Google's Android, will comprise 33% of the worldwide smartphone market by 2015. With more than 60,000 smartphones shipping each day, Android has catapulted ahead of other Linux mobile platforms.

Predictions of Linux' smartphone dominance are no longer surprising considering the number of implementations now available which are backed by influential industry players. Market hype is gradually making way for real-world deployments. LiMo, which has strong carrier support from the likes of Vodafone, NTT DoCoMo and Orange, has started to see handset ship, namely the Samsung H2. And Nokia and Intel have announced that their Moblin-Maemo Linux lovechild, Meego, has been released as version 1.0. This version is aimed at netbooks, but the next iteration, out later this year, will power smartphone devices.

ABI reckons that Linux in the mobile market today is nearly as disruptive as Linux was in server markets a decade ago.

However, it's clear that most of the Linux action now centres on Android, with interest driven by handset OEMs and mobile operators attracted to the platform's flexibility for product differentiation. Not only are these stakeholders ramping their Android smartphone output, but they're doing so at attractive points which will push these devices into the affordability threshold of a greater number of consumers.

Orange is leading the charge to put Android smartphones into the hands of budget users, with plans for a device costing $2 upfront with a low-end contract targeted at the carrier's customers in the developing world. However, its low-end push will start in Europe with Android phones from LG, Huawei, ZTE and Gigabyte, among others, all branded by the operator. The carrier expects smartphones to account for 50% of its device portfolio by 2013.

On the OEM front, Samsung is playing a key Android role. At Google's I/O event lat month the search giant said that Android was now supported by 28 OEMs and available in 48 countries from 59 carriers. But Samsung now plan for its Galaxy S Android phone to launch in 110 countries, effectively doubling the operating system's current global footprint.

Undoubtedly, Android is enjoying good momentum and might just be on it way to a tipping point. It's difficult to see how LiMo or Meego might catch-up, both in terms of technical maturity and commercial traction. Nonetheless, these mobile platforms serve at the will of some of the largest and most influential industry players who have a strategic incentive to ensure their respective Linux platform survives.

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