World mobile connections reach five billion

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World mobile connections reach five billion

GSM still has 78% of installed base, though W-CDMA main growth driver

By CAROLINE GABRIEL

Published: 8 July, 2010

READ MORE: Metrics | GSM

The world has crossed the five billion barrier in mobile connections, and should reach six billion in the first half of 2012. This is the conclusion of Wireless Intelligence, which found the industry had added one billion new connections in the past 18 months alone.

The researchers calculated that global mobile penetration now stands at 74%, up from 60% at the end of 2008. The region with the highest penetration, at a massive 130%, is western Europe, followed by eastern Europe on 123%. No other geographical area has yet crossed the 100% mark, and Africa has a level of only 52%.

The main growth since the industry got to four billion at the end of 2008 has come from Asia-Pacific, which now accounts for 47% of all mobile connections, compared to 42% at the earlier date. Most of this growth has come from China and India, while some previous hotbeds, like Pakistan and the Philippines, have seen their subscriber increases slow down. Unsurprisingly, the most mature markets - Europe and north America - have slower growth, and these developed mobile economies represent a declining share of the world total, at 27% of connections between them, compared to 30% 18 months ago.

The main technology trend has been the rise of W-CDMA/HSPA, which have now reached 12% of total global connections, up from 8% in Q408. GSM is still the dominant technology in installed base, though its global share has declined from 83% to 78%. It accounts for 92% of African mobile links, 88% in eastern Europe (despite widespread 3G availability) and 87% in the Middle East. The launch of 3G in major economies like India, China and Turkey should accelerate the shift away from GSM, and auctions are also upcoming in Thailand and Bangladesh.

Meanwhile, CDMA connections make up 10% of the world total, about the same as in the last study, even though the platform's share in the Americas halved to 5%, mainly because of Telefonica's migration to GSM/HSPA.

The addition of the next billion subscribers occurred despite some growth limiting factors - the recession; a trend for operators in many countries to disconnect inactive SIM cards for more accurate subscriber figures; mobile number portability and compulsory SIM card registration arriving in many emerging markets. On the plus side, over 150 operators launched 223 new networks during the period, while MVNOs were also a significant contributor to connections growth. There are now more than 600 MVNOs worldwide, says Wireless Intelligence, and 76 launched during 2009 and a further 35 so far in 2010. If that rate continues, the number of MVNOs will overtake the number of traditional mobile operators by mid-2013.