The phone keypad: may it rest in peace
It looks as though the keypad's days are numbered
Published: 15 July, 2010
READ MORE: Metrics | Input (physical) | Handset
The 12-digit keypad is the oldest and most ubiquitous handset input interface. Up until the early 2000s, the keypad was installed on virtually every mobile phone, giving it 100% device penetration. However, the keypad's glory days are over, according to research firm, ARCchart, and in the coming years, the proportion of handsets coming to market supporting a physical keypad will fall steadily, dropping to less than 50% of the market in 2015. It looks as though the keypad's days are numbered.
The mobile phone numeric keypad is a holdover from the wireline telephone (remember those?) and reflected the handset's almost exclusive voice centric nature for most of its lifetime. However, the handset has evolved into far more than a voice device. Messaging, video recording, navigation, social networking and gaming are just a few of the sophisticated applications for which mobile phones are frequently used today. These varied applications have morphed the handset into a consumer electronics device without any equivalent and is driving new and innovative input interfaces far in advanced of the old-school keypad.
The first major challenge came from BlackBerry devices which dumped the 12-digit keypad in favour of a full (albeit small) QWERTY keyboard. In the past five years, touchscreen phones have gained traction and most of these devices have also eschewed the keypad, instead rendering the keypad virtually on the screen.
Touchscreen handsets now represent the biggest challenge to both keypad and keyboard devices and are the predominant reason both these interfaces will see a steady decline over the coming years. As touchscreen prices continue to fall and consumers become more comfortable with virtual interfaces, handset OEMs will design more models without any physical interface - this is more or less the status quo in the smartphone segment.
In a study of the keypad and keyboard market, ARCchart estimates that 82% of all handsets had a keypad in 2009, while 6% had a keyboard. The volume of phones shipping with a keypad is forecast to grow slightly up to 2011, but will drop steadily thereafter. However, keypad device penetration will fall steadily over the coming years and just 43% of handsets sold in 2015 are expected to have the numeric interface.
At the low-end of the handset market, the keypad is exceptional value for money, adding just $1 to the handset bill of materials for a typical 12-key module. The keypad is some 30 times cheaper than a decent sized capacitive touchscreen. However, the keypad exerts a major influence on the handset size, shape and weight, and a slider mechanism (found on several phone models) adds cost and complexity in addition to bulk. As one of the few mechanical components still found on a phone, the keypad is more prone to faults and general wear and tear.
While it's hard to imagine that the keypad will ever completely disappear, in advanced markets where the carrier subsidy takes the smartphone price point down to zero, its hard to imagine that in those markets the keypad won't disappear.
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