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Samsung is likely to overtake Intel before 2015 and become the world's largest semiconductor vendor, with its mobile chips a key driver. This will put even more pressure on Intel to diversify its revenue streams and make a serious impact on the mobile and embedded devices market.

This is the view of analysts at IC Insights, who point out that Samsung's chip revenues have grown at a CAGR of 13.5% between 1999 and 2009, while Intel's has slowed to 3.4% in the same period. If the pattern continued, Samsung would overtake in 2014.

Intel's dominance has relied mainly on its microprocessors in PCs and servers, but it has had limited success in pushing its x86 architecture into mobile devices, which now represent the growth segment of the industry. Meanwhile, Samsung is larger in DRAM and NAND flash memory, where it is market leader, and is expanding its efforts and sales in many other areas that ride on mobile and embedded platforms - microcontrollers, microprocessors and wireless communication chips.

Although, in the past, it has not always won business with its own handset sister company, Samsung Mobile is now working more closely with the silicon arm and could be a vital lead customer in future - as in chips, Samsung is chasing the handset market leader, Nokia, aggressively and expanding its market share.

The main areas where Intel and Samsung clash are NAND flash and apps processors, both of which are growing on the back of growth in mobile gadgets. And Samsung has spent more on semiconductor capex than any chip vendor, including Intel, in six of the past seven years, says IC Insights. In particular, it has invested heavily in growing its ARM-based mobile processor business, whose flagship product is Hummingbird, and upgrading its foundry activities.

The chances of the Korean giant actually catching Intel? The analysts give it a better than 50:50 chance by 2014-2015, assuming no major downturn in the key memory markets. It is also assuming that Intel will not make a major mobile chip acquisition, which may be the flaw in its argument, especially if the giant goes ahead with reported plans to take over Infineon's wireless business - now said to be imminent. Though of course, Samsung is the other firm considered a frontrunner to buy the Infineon unit, and could mount a counterbid.

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