More analysts cast doubt on RIM's future
Bernstein questions survival even in enterprise space as companies open up phones
Published: 1 September, 2010
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Research in Motion has been doing its best to respond to market nerves about its future, turning up with an improved browser, a revamped user interface and a decent high end phone. It is even hinting at a brand new software platform, based on the technology it acquired with QNX, which would be optimized for high growth areas like multimedia tablets, including its forthcoming 'BlackPad'. For all that, analysts continue to spell doom for the firm, and even to revive the rumor from earlier this year, that Microsoft could acquire the BlackBerry maker.
That might seem like an extreme example of tying two logs together and hoping they float in mobile, and with RIM having to compromise with various governments over access to its email servers, even its key advantage over Microsoft - the famous security of its messaging platforms - could be diluted.
The latest analyst to warn of problems ahead for RIM is Pierre Ferragu of Bernstein, who points to the loss of market share in the consumer market and the saturation of the enterprise base. Ferragu says the large enterprise has little growth for BlackBerry-type platforms, and in the SME space, where there is more growth potential, there is also far more competition and prices are lower. The lucrative corporate email server deals, which tend to tie companies into RIM, do not apply in the lower rung of companies, and both iPhone and Android are making inroads too.
Ferragu told the All Things D blog that companies are increasingly allowing employees to use the smartphone of their choice, often to save money as well as increase staff satisfaction, and this is favouring Apple and Android. Where the BlackBerry is becoming cooler is in the teenage space, but that carries low margins.
"If there is still some growth in the number of users at companies already using mobile email, it is limited and we suspect it will turn into negligible value growth as it will go along with significant ASP decline," Ferragu wrote.
"Despite the company's overall dominance of the [enterprise] segment, 74% of companies with mobile email have already adopted alternative platforms. This phenomenon is very new - almost all these companies opened up their systems in the last two years, half of them in the last 12 months. We expect these companies to progressively ramp up the installed base of non-Blackberry solutions and therefore expect increased pressure on RIM's performance."
This is down to user preference, as managers remain highly satisfied with the RIM platform and confident it will continue to innovate.
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