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When Pyramid Research suggested that Windows Phone would overtake iOS by 2014 it encountered a hefty measure of scorn for its sacrilege. But now another research firm, IDC, has come to the same conclusion, although it thinks Microsoft will take an extra year to topple Apple.

Gartner also believes Nokia - despite its current crises - will drive WP7 and its successors to a dominant position, although still lagging Android. According to IDC's forecasts, WP7 will command 20.3% of the global smartphone market by 2015, behind Android at 43.8% and iOS at 16.9%.

IDC's thinking is that Nokia will bring the mobile Windows platforms significant support and breadth in the markets where the Finnish vendor has been strong, and is assuming that, regardless of the financial analysts' gloom, Nokia will hold on to most of those markets - keeping Symbian reasonably robust in emerging economies and then successfully transitioning the user bases to WP7.

This is a big assumption to make, while all the pro-WP7 forecasters seem to belittle the role of other supporters, notably HTC - while the Taiwanese firm, like Samsung and LG, does not support Microsoft alone, they all have an interest in having a counterweight to Google, and HTC remains the Windows Mobile market leader. It will have an easier task converting a Windows Mobile base than Nokia will in migrating its Symbian users, given that there is a year to survive between the older platform being given its death sentence, and WP7 devices appearing.

In the nearer term, IDC expects Android to gain more than 40% of the world market in the second half of 2011, taking advantage of the decline of Symbian. Though the researchers agree that Symbian's decline is an opportunity for other OSs, it believes "Nokia's commitment to support Symbian devices until 2016 will keep the installed base on par with its competitors."

Meanwhile, Microsoft itself is trying to tempt Android users to its new OS. Two months after it launched a tool to help developers port iPhone apps to WP7, it is adding Android support. It will now offer an Android version of its API Mapping Tool and has published a 'WP7 Guide for Android Application Developers'.

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