Honeycomb is the first sign of Android’s vulnerabilities

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Honeycomb is the first sign of Android’s vulnerabilities

Android has enjoyed such a run of success over the past two years that it is almost sacrilege to suggest it could hit a roadblock

By CAROLINE GABRIEL

Published: 29 June, 2011

Android has enjoyed such a run of success over the past two years that it is almost sacrilege to suggest it could hit a roadblock. The surprisingly large bunch of analysts who think WP7 will succeed in becoming the second mobile OS believe this will be at the expense of Apple not Google. And though new-look devices such as cloudbooks may well sport new operating systems like webOS and Chrome OS, on the smartphone, it is hard to see Android losing its crown. But in the fickle world of mobile software, it’s important to think the unthinkable, and there are some significant chinks appearing in Android’s armor. Some of its most important qualities could backfire against it, notably its openness, while hostility to Google’s personal influence is on the rise in several quarters. While we believe Android will remain the dominant OS on handsets, the wider wireless device market is still immature and will remain fragmented for some time as old and new platforms fight for a role. Intel is attacking, with MeeGo, via in-car systems and new-wave netbooks; Microsoft is leveraging non-phone developers to boost WP7 via its gaming and enterprise links; HP wants to infiltrate all manner of connected gadgets with webOS as a Trojan horse, often living alongside existing OSs. All this throws doubt on Android’s ability to replicate its smartphone success in other device categories, and the first danger signs have already been seen in the tablet space.

The clouds over Android’s future are really not about handsets. The OS is well suited to drop down into the featurephone space, creating volume, while being steadily enhanced for smartphones too. There will be blips, of course, usually caused by the launch of a new iPhone (or, as Nokia hopes, a hard-hitting WP7 device). But a recent prediction that the ‘iPhone 5’ would halt Android’s recent growth spurt seems overstated.

Charlie Wolf, a senior analyst at Needham & Co, said in a research note that Android’s market share in its key US market had fallen sequentially for the first time in more than a year during the first quarter of 2011, down from 52.4% to 49.5% according to IDC figures. This process would continue once the iPhone 5 debuts, wrote Wolf.

"In our opinion this is just the beginning of Android's share loss in the US," he wrote. "The migration of subscribers to the iPhone on Verizon network should accelerate this fall when Apple coordinates the launch of iPhone 5 on the GSM and CDMA networks. The iPhone could also launch on the Sprint and T-Mobile networks."

In reality, the share loss is minimal and Android has multiple devices with which to fend off Apple. Most significantly in the US, Android handsets supporting LTE and WiMAX have come to market remarkably quickly, and have a serious headstart on the iPhone, which is not expected to run the 4G standard until 2012. With Verizon, Sprint (and soon AT&T) heavily promoting their 4G connections and stirring up genuine consumer excitement, there will be heavy disappointment when there is no iPhone to accompany the new data rates. So, of course, iOS will continue to score points off Android, but the overall year-by-year trend is likely to favor the more open system, especially when global, rather than just US, patterns are considered.

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