Tablets and cloud drive next mobile data explosion
Wi-Fi and cellular devices to handle 10.8 exabytes of data each month by 2016 as users switch to streaming
Published: 14 February, 2012
READ MORE: Metrics | Cisco Systems | Cloud | Infrastructure | Tablet
Just as the iPhone shouldered most of the blame for overloading ill-prepared 3G networks with data, so the iPad is set to be the scapegoat for the deluge will may overtake 4G systems. Cisco's latest Visual Networking Index (VNI) focuses on the next big shift in mobile behavior, to streaming content from the cloud, accelerated by large-screen devices like tablets.
Cisco, which recently launched its fastest enterprise Wi-Fi access points to date, specifically citing the data load imposed by tablets, said the US market has already hit the tipping point in moving from downloads or sideloads to streamed content. The cloud now accounts for just over 50% of mobile data traffic (cellular and Wi-Fi) in that region, and by the end of 2012, the cloud figure will be 54% on a global basis, rising to 71% in 2016. And across all forms of mobile content, video will account for over 70% by mid-decade, up from 52% last year.
Another key shift is away from wireless PCs, and towards more fully mobile devices. The VNI defines mobile data as traffic to portable gadgets (notebooks, tablets, handsets) over Wi-Fi or cellular. Laptops are the leading source of wireless data traffic now, on over 80%, but by 2016, smartphones will account for 48% of the total, up from 18% now, and tablets will see the most rapid increase in usage, from just 1% at the start of this year, to 10%.
As always, the top tier of users accounts for a disproportionate share of the traffic and network load, but that tier will grow wider as time goes by, as ownership of data hogs like iPads widens, and as carriers curb the behaviour of the very high end users. At the start of 2010, the top 1% of consumers accounted for a huge 52% of traffic, a figure which fell to 24% a year later. Now, the top 20% of mobile bandwidth hogs are growing their consumption almost three times faster than the top 1%, a pattern shift which will influence how operators will plan their tariffs and their charging structures in future.
By 2016, a mighty 10.8 exabytes of data will be sent over mobile networks each month, with the average consumer using 1.2Gbytes. That's a global figure, so in some markets the average will be far higher - an estimated 4Gbytes a month in the US, for example, up from 317Mbytes in 2011. And 60% of customers will use more than 1Gbyte of mobile data a month by then, compared to just 0.5% in 2011.
That level of traffic had risen 133% compared to 2010, slightly faster than Cisco had previously predicted. "Mobile data traffic will continue to explode. This is a trend we don't see slowing down," said Suraj Setty, VP for service provider marketing. This should spark a bounceback for wireless infrastructure vendors, which have been suffering from carrier spending slowdown in recent quarters. "A lot of service providers are increasing their spending on wireless," Shetty added in an interview.
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