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WiMAX Forum chief hits back at LTE over-optimism
Published: 12 December, 2008
Tags >> LTE | WiMAX
WiMAX Forum chief Ron Resnick has hit back at the recent wave of excitement about imminent LTE launches, telling a recent conference that the 3GPP standard is at least three to four years from the commercial mainstream, and that it would be just as big an undertaking to deploy as WiMAX.
"We need to set the record straight," he told the WiMAX Forum congress in Rio. "LTE is not an evolution. It's a complete forklift, just like WiMAX." It has been a common misconception that, because LTE has emerged from the 3GPP, it will be backwards compatible with that body's 3G standards, or at least offer a simpler migration path. In fact, WiMAX and LTE are far closer in technology terms than LTE and W-CDMA or CDMA2000, making the shift from 3G to 4G similar in either case. The main elements that will make the migration easier for existing mobile operators will be effective hand-off and core network elements that allow for internetworking and overlays, plus cost effective dual-mode devices. Efforts to achieve these are ongoing for both 4G standards, but the market availability of WiMAX gives it an obvious headstart.
Perhaps of even more immediate concern to operators will be how long it will take the LTE community to get testing and certification processes working, even after the standard is finalized around March 2009. In WiMAX and 3G standards, it was a long and complex task to establish the labs and procedures, and for vendors to invest the time and resources to gain certification - and there is no reason why LTE should be any different. This means that very early adopters like DoCoMo, Verizon Wireless and China Mobile are likely to face the choice of implementing pre-standard systems, or pushing their timescales out.
Resnick pointed out another sine qua non of an economically viable standard for the mass market - a developed chipset ecosystem, which will also take a couple of years to emerge for LTE. "You can add WiMAX to Wi-Fi chips with almost no incremental cost to the notebook or netbook," he said, adding that it would cost an extra $60-$100 to incorporate an HSPA modem too.
Success is all about devices, of course, and many of WiMAX' biggest opportunities lie in emerging markets where LTE is over a very distant horizon, most importantly India. Several companies are engaged in creating devices geared to the subcontinent, in terms of both cost and form factor, and Sriram Viswanathan, general manager of Intel's WiMAX Program Office, said last week that the company is working with Indian operators and device manufacturers to bring WiMAX-ready notebooks and netbooks to the country within six months.
Intel and the WiMAX Forum's Indian branch have also set up a program focused on delivering affordable WiMAX devices to Indians as the country prepares for spectrum auctions in January. The initial emphasis will be on 2.3GHz and 2.5GHz devices, on interoperability and cost reduction techniques. The Forum predicts there will be 27.5m broadband internet users in India by 2012.
This will increase the tilt of the WiMAX map eastwards, with Asia-Pacific already accounting for two-thirds of WiMAX subscribers, according to figures from Infonetics. In the third quarter, the research firm said three vendors - Alvarion, Alcatel-Lucent and Motorola - took 60% of the mobile WiMAX revenues, with Alvarion overtaking the two larger vendors to grab the top spot. In fixed 802.16d WiMAX, the leaders were Telsima and Airspan.
